The CDC has greatly increased its estimate of the number of U.S. residents who have died from the H1N1 swine flu virus. The number of deaths have increased from 1,200 to 3,900. The CDC claims it is really an accounting issue and not a situation where the virus is getting more deadly. The H1N1 numbers are clearly showing the youngest are hardest hit. With H1N1 90% of the deaths have been in people 65 and under. That is very different from seasonal flu when 90% of the deaths are in people 65 and older. 38,000 children under 18 have been hospitalized and 540 have died. Take a look:
H1N1 Inundates Hospitals As Vaccine Very Slowly Trickles In
The White House residently declared the H1N1 swine flu pandemic a national emergency and a USA Todayarticle explains why. The article describes a few hospitals that are already being overwhelmed by patients.
Connie Price, chief of infectious diseases at Denver Health, the city's public hospital, says, "I've been living this" since Aug. 28, when the hospital's lab reported 12 positive tests for swine flu.
"Since then we've been inundated," she says. "In a typical flu season, we may hospitalize 15 patients. With H1N1, we've hospitalized 10 times that many. We're not even in flu season yet."
In Rio Grande County, a rural community in the Rockies about 200 miles south of Denver near the New Mexico border, clinics were so overwhelmed with patients that they began turning away those who didn't have flu. With absentee rates of 40%, schools closed. Many of those children turned up in local clinics and emergency rooms.
Some local hospitals probably could have managed if the 120 million doses of swine flu vaccine had arrived by the end of October as the U.S. government promised back in June. The actual number is far short of the June estimate. We will now be lucky to get 50 million doses by the end of November. In fact, it will be a huge surprise if we get anywhere near that amount. As the New York Timesreports, "federal projections have been consistently and wildly overoptimistic and have had to be ratcheted down several times."
If the vaccine projections had been met the vaccine might have been able to prevent some of these cases that are now likely to inundate hospitals in November, December and on into 2010.
Worldwide Death Toll From H1N1 Swine Flu Passes 5,000
The Flucount.org website, which is trying to count flu cases and deaths, reports that the number of worldwide deaths from H1N1 swine flu has passed the 5,000 mark.
The worldwide total is likely higher than this because there are nations that are probably not reporting deaths with accuracy and some that are not reporting them at all.
FluCount Website Tracks H1N1 Swine Flu Cases and Deaths
A website called Flucount.org is attempting to track the cases and deaths of H1N1 swine flu around the world. Tracking is not easy because testing is different in different pats of the world. Many cases are also never tested and some deaths are likely missed. Even in the U.S. there is a lack of confirming whether each case is H1N1 related because test kits aren't always accurate and it takes too long to get results back from the CDC. There are also people who get the flu and never tell anyone and there also people who never have symptoms.
The CDC itself has gone back to reporting overall flu cases instead of trying to track individual H1N1 cases. This works for now because the bulk of the flu cases are currently suspected to be H1N1. When the regular flu season hits this winter it may be unclear whether a flu case is H1N1 or a seasonal strain.
White House: Swine Flu Could Kill 90,000 People This Year
Bloombergreports that White House advisers say the H1N1 swine flu virus could kill 90,000 and hospitalize 1.8 million people this year. Swine flu has hospitalized about 8,000 and killed over 500 so far this year so the bulk of the deaths and hospitalizations would come in the last four months of the year. That would be around 22,000 deaths per month and 450,000 hospitilizations per month if this does indeed occur.
Swine flu may infect half the U.S. population this year, hospitalize 1.8 million patients and lead to as many as 90,000 deaths, more than twice the number killed in a typical seasonal flu, White House advisers said.
In a report by the President’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology, President Barack Obama today was urged to speed vaccine production and name a senior member of the White House staff, preferably the homeland security adviser, to take responsibility for decision-making on the pandemic. Initial doses should be accelerated to mid-September to vaccinate as many as 40 million people, the advisory group said.
If that many people get sick there are going to be lots of people out of work and possibly a lot of confusion. If hospitals get overwhelmed then we will run into extra problems. The HHS has said that even the high priority groups will not be fully immunized until Thanksgiving. If the vaccine had been made available by August 1st and immunizations were already underway then you probably wouldn't have this concern about 90,000 potential deaths. Unfortunately, that is not what happened. The vaccine is not coming in time to beat the return of students to schools and cooler fall temperatures. This means a lot of people will probably be exposed to the virus before they receive their first of two immunizations.
You can find a list of H1N1 swine flu resources here.
The WHO reports that global death toll from H1N1 swine flu is 1154.
As of 31 of July 2009, 168 countries and overseas territories/communities have reported at least one laboratory confirmed case of pandemic (H1N1) 09. All continents are affected by the pandemic.
The countries and overseas territories/communities that have newly reported their first pandemic (H1N1) 2009 confirmed case(s) since the last web update (27 July 2009) as of 31 July 2009 are:
Azerbaijan, Gabon, Grenada, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Monaco, Nauru, Swaziland, Suriname
The report also says there have been 162,380 cases but the actual total is supected to be much higher.
The World Health Organization has a new update today that puts the total death toll from the H1N1 swine flu virus at 816. So far, most of the cases and deaths have occurred in the Americas.
The WHO has stopped asking countries to supply individual case counts but it appears they are still tracking deaths from the H1N1 swine flu virus.
The Contra Costa Timesreports that the number of H1N1 swine flu deaths has climb to 55. 23 additional new deaths have come in a single week.
"We expect to continue to see more cases of swine flu, more serious cases and, unfortunately, more deaths," said Ken August, spokesman for the California Department of Public Health.
Though health officials expected the spread of swine flu to slow in the hot summer months, as influenza viruses often do, the virus hasn't gone away, August said.
"While the majority of cases have been mild so far, public health officials remain very concerned that the virus could evolve into a more serious strain of influenza," he said.
The California Department of Health's website has a helpful chart here that shows the case distribution by country in California. The chart also indicates there have been 441 hospitalizations in the state from H1N1 swine flu.
Deaths from H1N1 swine flu climbed to 47 in New York City as of July 7th. The number of deaths increased by 9 since July 1st. There have been over 900 people hospitalized in New York City because of the swine flu. Even though the numbers are increasing the cases and deaths do not garner nearly as much attention as they did when they outbreak first began. Instead of giving press conferences the data is now updated on the NYC Health Department website. New York City Health Department's website can be found here.
The latest swine flu update (#58) from the World Health Organization (WHO) has the case total approaching 100,000 confirmed cases. Officially there have been 94,512 confirmed cases and 429 deaths. Here's a list of the countries reporting the most swine flu deaths.
United States - 170
Mexico - 119
Argentina - 60
Canada - 25
Chile - 14
Australia -10
Some reports recently have indicated potentially high death tolls from h1n1 swine flu. The CDC has mentioned the possibility of 90,000 to 450,000. The British government mentioned the possibility of 40 deaths per day by late August. The death toll will depend on what percentage of the population becomes ill. If a large percentage (like 30-40%) of the population falls ill then it is reasonable to expect large death tolls even if the death rate is quite low. The lack of immunity or a vaccine makes it likely that many people will get sick from the h1n1 swine flu virus.
There was also a high-profile celebrity swine flu case - Rupert Grint from the Harry Potter films was infected and recovered. Hopefully, his illness will help raise awareness about the swine flu pandemic.
CDC: Fatality Rate for H1N1 Slightly Higher Than Seasonal Flu
An MSNBC.com article quotes Dr. Anne Schuchat of the CDC as saying the fatality rate for H1N1 swine flu appears to be slightly higher than that of seasonal flu. These contradicts what many health officials have been saying - that the H1N1 virus is no more severe than seasonal flu. Dr. Anne Schucat also says there are 200 people hospitalized with swine flu and more deaths are expected.
"We wonder whether this strain will continue during the summer and give us more of a summer influenza pattern," said Schuchat, interim deputy director for science and public health program. "Unfortunately, we don't know whether we’re going to get a break this summer with this virus."
So far, the fatality rate for the novel virus appears to be slightly higher than for seasonal influenza, which contributes to an estimated 36,000 deaths in the U.S. each year, Schuchat said. More than 200 people have been hospitalized, mostly children and teens, which is also very different from seasonal infections.
Schuchat warned that the virus likely will continue to spread and to cause more hospitalizations and more deaths.
Hopefully, we will get a break this summer but even we do people have to not let down their guard this fall. The virus spreads easily because most people do not appear to have immunity to it and there is no vaccine.
WebMD reports that Daniel Jernigan, MD, PhD, deputy director of the CDC's influenza division says that more than 100,000 Americans probably have the flu and of these at least half probably have swine flu. This means there are probably 50,000 or more people with the H1N1 swine flu virus.
Jernigan noted that the 4,700 confirmed or probable cases of swine flu reported to CDC represent a gross underestimate. When asked how many actual cases there were, Jernigan noted that 7% to 10% of the U.S. population -- up to 30 million people -- get the seasonal flu each year.
"So with the amount of activity we are seeing now, it is a little hard to know what that means in terms of making an estimate now of the total number of people with flu out in the community," Jernigan said. "But if I had to make an estimate, I would say ... probably upwards of maybe 100,000."
The WebMD article also says that flu cases are going up at a time of year when they generally decrease.
At a time when flu season should be ending or over, the CDC's flu season indicators are going up instead of down. As of May 9, 22 states had widespread or regional flu.
WebMD says that flu/pneumonia deaths for the week ending May 9th were 7.2% of all deaths. This is just under the "epidemic threshold" of 7.4% of all deaths. WebMD also reports that 173 people been hospitalized with H1N1 so far and most of them have been very young, between 5-24 years old.
The World Health Organization says in its latest update that 26 countries have officially reported 3440 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection. The cases include 48 confirmed deaths - 45 in Mexico, 1 in Canada and 2 in the United States.
Mexico has reported 1364 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 45 deaths. The United States has reported 1639 laboratory confirmed human cases, including two deaths. Canada has reported 242 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Argentina (1), Australia (1), Austria (1), Brazil (6), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Colombia (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (12), Germany (11), Guatemala (1), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (6), Japan (3), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (5), Panama (2), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (88), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (34).
The latest WHO update can be found here. WHO also has provided a map that shows the cases as of May 9th. More h1n1 resources can be found here.
WHO's influenza pandemic alert raised from phase 4 to 5 but they have not yet upgraded it to phase 6.
The World Health Organization says in its latest update that 21 countries have officially reported 1124 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection. The cases include 26 confirmed deaths - 25 in Mexico and 1 in the United States.
Mexico has reported 590 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 25 deaths. The United States has reported 286 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (140), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Colombia (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (4), Germany (8), Ireland (1), Israel (4), Italy (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (6), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (54), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (18).
The latest WHO update can be found here. WHO also has provided a map that shows the cases as of May 4th. More h1n1 resources can be found here.
WHO's influenza pandemic alert raised from phase 4 to 5 but they have not yet upgraded it to phase 6.
The World Health Organization says in its latest update that 20 countries have officially reported 985 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection. The cases include 26 confirmed deaths - 25 in Mexico and 1 in the United States.
Mexico has reported 590 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 25 deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States has reported 226 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (85), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Colombia (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (2), Germany (8), Ireland (1), Israel (3), Italy (1), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (40), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).
The latest WHO update can be found here. WHO also has provided a map that shows the cases as of May 3rd. More h1n1 resources can be found here.
An MSNBC.com 
