The CDC has greatly increased its estimate of the number of U.S. residents who have died from the H1N1 swine flu virus. The number of deaths have increased from 1,200 to 3,900. The CDC claims it is really an accounting issue and not a situation where the virus is getting more deadly. The H1N1 numbers are clearly showing the youngest are hardest hit. With H1N1 90% of the deaths have been in people 65 and under. That is very different from seasonal flu when 90% of the deaths are in people 65 and older. 38,000 children under 18 have been hospitalized and 540 have died. Take a look:
The White House residently declared the H1N1 swine flu pandemic a national emergency and a USA Todayarticle explains why. The article describes a few hospitals that are already being overwhelmed by patients.
Connie Price, chief of infectious diseases at Denver Health, the city's public hospital, says, "I've been living this" since Aug. 28, when the hospital's lab reported 12 positive tests for swine flu.
"Since then we've been inundated," she says. "In a typical flu season, we may hospitalize 15 patients. With H1N1, we've hospitalized 10 times that many. We're not even in flu season yet."
In Rio Grande County, a rural community in the Rockies about 200 miles south of Denver near the New Mexico border, clinics were so overwhelmed with patients that they began turning away those who didn't have flu. With absentee rates of 40%, schools closed. Many of those children turned up in local clinics and emergency rooms.
Some local hospitals probably could have managed if the 120 million doses of swine flu vaccine had arrived by the end of October as the U.S. government promised back in June. The actual number is far short of the June estimate. We will now be lucky to get 50 million doses by the end of November. In fact, it will be a huge surprise if we get anywhere near that amount. As the New York Timesreports, "federal projections have been consistently and wildly overoptimistic and have had to be ratcheted down several times."
If the vaccine projections had been met the vaccine might have been able to prevent some of these cases that are now likely to inundate hospitals in November, December and on into 2010.
A website called Flucount.org is attempting to track the cases and deaths of H1N1 swine flu around the world. Tracking is not easy because testing is different in different pats of the world. Many cases are also never tested and some deaths are likely missed. Even in the U.S. there is a lack of confirming whether each case is H1N1 related because test kits aren't always accurate and it takes too long to get results back from the CDC. There are also people who get the flu and never tell anyone and there also people who never have symptoms.
The CDC itself has gone back to reporting overall flu cases instead of trying to track individual H1N1 cases. This works for now because the bulk of the flu cases are currently suspected to be H1N1. When the regular flu season hits this winter it may be unclear whether a flu case is H1N1 or a seasonal strain.
Bloombergreports that White House advisers say the H1N1 swine flu virus could kill 90,000 and hospitalize 1.8 million people this year. Swine flu has hospitalized about 8,000 and killed over 500 so far this year so the bulk of the deaths and hospitalizations would come in the last four months of the year. That would be around 22,000 deaths per month and 450,000 hospitilizations per month if this does indeed occur.
Swine flu may infect half the U.S. population this year, hospitalize 1.8 million patients and lead to as many as 90,000 deaths, more than twice the number killed in a typical seasonal flu, White House advisers said.
In a report by the President’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology, President Barack Obama today was urged to speed vaccine production and name a senior member of the White House staff, preferably the homeland security adviser, to take responsibility for decision-making on the pandemic. Initial doses should be accelerated to mid-September to vaccinate as many as 40 million people, the advisory group said.
If that many people get sick there are going to be lots of people out of work and possibly a lot of confusion. If hospitals get overwhelmed then we will run into extra problems. The HHS has said that even the high priority groups will not be fully immunized until Thanksgiving. If the vaccine had been made available by August 1st and immunizations were already underway then you probably wouldn't have this concern about 90,000 potential deaths. Unfortunately, that is not what happened. The vaccine is not coming in time to beat the return of students to schools and cooler fall temperatures. This means a lot of people will probably be exposed to the virus before they receive their first of two immunizations.
You can find a list of H1N1 swine flu resources here.
The WHO reports that global death toll from H1N1 swine flu is 1154.
As of 31 of July 2009, 168 countries and overseas territories/communities have reported at least one laboratory confirmed case of pandemic (H1N1) 09. All continents are affected by the pandemic.
The countries and overseas territories/communities that have newly reported their first pandemic (H1N1) 2009 confirmed case(s) since the last web update (27 July 2009) as of 31 July 2009 are:
Azerbaijan, Gabon, Grenada, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Monaco, Nauru, Swaziland, Suriname
The report also says there have been 162,380 cases but the actual total is supected to be much higher.
The World Health Organization has a new update today that puts the total death toll from the H1N1 swine flu virus at 816. So far, most of the cases and deaths have occurred in the Americas.
The WHO has stopped asking countries to supply individual case counts but it appears they are still tracking deaths from the H1N1 swine flu virus.
The Contra Costa Timesreports that the number of H1N1 swine flu deaths has climb to 55. 23 additional new deaths have come in a single week.
"We expect to continue to see more cases of swine flu, more serious cases and, unfortunately, more deaths," said Ken August, spokesman for the California Department of Public Health.
Though health officials expected the spread of swine flu to slow in the hot summer months, as influenza viruses often do, the virus hasn't gone away, August said.
"While the majority of cases have been mild so far, public health officials remain very concerned that the virus could evolve into a more serious strain of influenza," he said.
The California Department of Health's website has a helpful chart here that shows the case distribution by country in California. The chart also indicates there have been 441 hospitalizations in the state from H1N1 swine flu.
Deaths from H1N1 swine flu climbed to 47 in New York City as of July 7th. The number of deaths increased by 9 since July 1st. There have been over 900 people hospitalized in New York City because of the swine flu. Even though the numbers are increasing the cases and deaths do not garner nearly as much attention as they did when they outbreak first began. Instead of giving press conferences the data is now updated on the NYC Health Department website. New York City Health Department's website can be found here.
The latest swine flu update (#58) from the World Health Organization (WHO) has the case total approaching 100,000 confirmed cases. Officially there have been 94,512 confirmed cases and 429 deaths. Here's a list of the countries reporting the most swine flu deaths.
United States - 170
Mexico - 119
Argentina - 60
Canada - 25
Chile - 14
Australia -10
Some reports recently have indicated potentially high death tolls from h1n1 swine flu. The CDC has mentioned the possibility of 90,000 to 450,000. The British government mentioned the possibility of 40 deaths per day by late August. The death toll will depend on what percentage of the population becomes ill. If a large percentage (like 30-40%) of the population falls ill then it is reasonable to expect large death tolls even if the death rate is quite low. The lack of immunity or a vaccine makes it likely that many people will get sick from the h1n1 swine flu virus.
There was also a high-profile celebrity swine flu case - Rupert Grint from the Harry Potter films was infected and recovered. Hopefully, his illness will help raise awareness about the swine flu pandemic.
The BBC reports that experts have discovered the first case of swine flu that is resistant to tamiflu, an antiviral drug being used to fight h1n1.
Roche Holding AG confirmed a patient with H1N1 influenza in Denmark showed resistance to the antiviral drug.
David Reddy, company executive, said it was not unexpected given that common seasonal flu could do the same.
The news comes as a nine-year-old girl has become the third to die in the UK with swine flu.
Virologist Professor John Oxford told the BBC, "I'm not surprised about this finding. The question is whether it is going to spread. We will soon know the answer."
The CDC has categorized swine flu as a Category 2 outbreak, with the possibility of 90,000 to 450,000 deaths in the U.S. There were are record 6,300 new cases in the U.S. last week.
The World Health Organization says in its latest update that 26 countries have officially reported 3440 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection. The cases include 48 confirmed deaths - 45 in Mexico, 1 in Canada and 2 in the United States.
Mexico has reported 1364 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 45 deaths. The United States has reported 1639 laboratory confirmed human cases, including two deaths. Canada has reported 242 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Argentina (1), Australia (1), Austria (1), Brazil (6), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Colombia (1), Costa Rica (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (12), Germany (11), Guatemala (1), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (6), Japan (3), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (5), Panama (2), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (88), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (34).
The latest WHO update can be found here. WHO also has provided a map that shows the cases as of May 9th. More h1n1 resources can be found here.
WHO's influenza pandemic alert raised from phase 4 to 5 but they have not yet upgraded it to phase 6.
The World Health Organization says in its latest update that 21 countries have officially reported 1124 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection. The cases include 26 confirmed deaths - 25 in Mexico and 1 in the United States.
Mexico has reported 590 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 25 deaths. The United States has reported 286 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (140), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Colombia (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (4), Germany (8), Ireland (1), Israel (4), Italy (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (6), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (54), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (18).
The latest WHO update can be found here. WHO also has provided a map that shows the cases as of May 4th. More h1n1 resources can be found here.
WHO's influenza pandemic alert raised from phase 4 to 5 but they have not yet upgraded it to phase 6.
The World Health Organization says in its latest update that 20 countries have officially reported 985 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection. The cases include 26 confirmed deaths - 25 in Mexico and 1 in the United States.
Mexico has reported 590 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 25 deaths. The higher number of cases from Mexico reflects ongoing testing of previously collected specimens. The United States has reported 226 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.
The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (85), China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1), Costa Rica (1), Colombia (1), Denmark (1), El Salvador (2), France (2), Germany (8), Ireland (1), Israel (3), Italy (1), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (4), Republic of Korea (1), Spain (40), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (15).
The latest WHO update can be found here. WHO also has provided a map that shows the cases as of May 3rd. More h1n1 resources can be found here.
The World Health Organization raised the alert for swine flu to level five. This is one level short of a full pandemic and suggests a pandemic is imminent.
Dr. Margaret Chan, WHO's director-general, said, "It really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic."
There are at least 91 cases in the United States and one death. There are also a growing number of countries with mounting swine flu cases. Schools are closing in the United States in an attempt to stop the spread of the swine flu.
A vaccine is in the works but won't be available until September, at the earliest. You can find links to some swine flu resources here.
A serious outbreak of swine flu in Mexico that has killed 103 people could become the next pandemic according to experts at WHO and the CDC. A pandemic is not a certainty yet, just a possibility. There have been at least 20 cases in the U.S. with no deaths and just one person was hospitalized. Cases have also been reported in Canada, New Zealand, Scotland, Isreal, France and Spain. Planes with sick passengers from Mexico are currently the main way the virus is spreading.
The swine flu in Mexico has reportedly killed primarily young health people aged 25-45. This raises concern that people are dying not directly from the flu itself but possibly from what's called a cytokine storm. Tara C. Smith, writing at the Aetiology blog, explains more about the cytokine storm here. We still do not know for sure how exactly the flu outbreak is killing people in Mexico City.
A Guardianarticle says that health experts in Mexico suspect that "tens of thousands" may have been infected and recovered.
Across Mexico, more than 1,300 people were tested for suspected swine flu infection and 400 were taken to hospital for checks. Health officials believe that tens of thousands, and possibly more, have been infected but have since recovered.
If so, this would greatly reduce the percentage of those who die from the swine flu but it is still too early to ascertain what is going on.
You can find some resources here. We will be frequently updating this page with new resources and adding more local government health resources.
Dieting may not be wise if what MSU researchers found in mice translates to humans as well. BBC reports that the MSU researchers found that mice that were fed 40% less were more likely to catch the flu. Mice fed less also took longer to recover from the flu.
The team at Michigan State University found even though the mice on the lower calorie diet received adequate amounts of vitamins and minerals, their bodies were still not able to produce the number of killer cells needed to fight an infection.
As well as being more likely to die from the virus, the mice - which were consuming around 40% of the calories given to their counterparts on a normal diet - took longer to recover, lost more weight and displayed other symptoms of poor health.
"Our research shows that having a body ready to fight a virus will lead to a faster recovery and less-severe effects than if it is calorically restricted," said study author Professor Elizabeth Gardner.
It would be interesting to see if the study gets the same results with other viruses such as the common cold virus. Flu activity has been pretty low so far this year but it is starting to pick up in the Northeast - you can see the latest graphic showing activity in the U.S. state here on the CDC's website.
CBS News reporter Maggie Rodriguez talked to Dr. Holly Phillips about a commonly asked question by people feeling sick, "Do I have a Cold or a Flu?" Dr. Holly Phillips says most of the time its the common cold. She says adults get between 2 or 4 colds each year and children get as many as 6 to 10 cold each year.
The flu tends to come with a high fever and the "run over by a truck" feeling. Doctors do have a rapid flu test available. The one thing this video does not discuss is allergies which can also be confused with a cold or a flu.
Google has launched a new service called Google Flu Trends that uses search activity to estimate flu activity in your state. They say it could act as an early warning system for a severe outbreak.
So why bother with estimates from aggregated search queries? It turns out that traditional flu surveillance systems take 1-2 weeks to collect and release surveillance data, but Google search queries can be automatically counted very quickly. By making our flu estimates available each day, Google Flu Trends may provide an early-warning system for outbreaks of influenza.
Reuters has a story here about Google's new service.
A WebMD article says the flu is widespread in seven states but it is an average flu season so far according to the CDC.
Influenza has become widespread in the Southwestern United States, though health officials Friday still classified the disease's spread this winter as fairly typical.
Seven states -- California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado, and Texas -- now show what scientists classify as widespread flu activity. The number is up from four states two weeks ago, according to data released by the CDC.
In all, the agency has received 63,104 reports of persons contracting flu-like illness as of Dec. 31, placing the 2005-2006 flu season at about average for yearly U.S. flu activity.
"Basically, activity is increasing as you'd expect for this time of year. This [season] is lighter than some, but activity is staring to pick up," says Lynnette Brammer, an epidemiologist who oversees domestic flu surveillance for the CDC.
This is the regular flu and not the feared bird flu but people still need to remember that regular flu is a killer as well. The elderly, young children and people with existing health problems are the most vulnerable to the flu. A CDC flu fact page provides these statistics:
5% to 20% of the population gets the flu;
more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu complications, and;
about 36,000 people die from flu.
It would be interesting to know if the 36,000 average includes the fatalities from the 1918 flu season when over 600,000 people in the U.S. were killed by an influenza outbreak. That one year at 600,000 could really make the average deaths estimate jump.
The flu virus has always been known for its ability to mutate but scientists have discovered that the flu virus can mutate even more rapidly than originally thought -- which raises new concerns about the emerging bird flu problem in Southeast asia. The BBC reports on the new discovery:
Scientists previously believed that gene swapping progressed gradually from season to season.
The National Institutes of Health team found instead, influenza A exchanged several genes at once, causing sudden and major changes to the virus.
The findings in PLOS Biology suggest strains could vary widely each season, making it potentially harder to treat.
Scientists with the World Health Organization and local disease experts in various countries have been working together to try and prevent a deadly bird virus from spreading to humans where it could mutate and then spread rapidly from human to human. Scientists are concerned that bird flu could killed tens of millions of people if the flu gains the ability to spread quickly among human hosts. More on the bird flu outbreak can be found here and here
The BBC 
